File Photo Acadia Broadcasting)
Environment Canada says most of Northwest Ontario is likely to see warmer-than-normal conditions this summer, with fire weather severity expected to rise by August.
“There’s a high likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of Canada this season, including Ontario,” said Jennifer Smith, National Warning Preparedness Meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.
Smith presented the agency’s summer 2025 outlook this week, noting that while broad trends can be identified, the outlook isn’t meant to predict local conditions.
“They give us a sense of the general pattern, such as whether it will be warmer or cooler than usual, but not the day-to-day weather happening in your backyard,” Smith said.
Rainfall patterns are harder to pin down. Much of Northwest Ontario is in a “no signal” zone on Environment Canada’s precipitation map — meaning there isn’t strong model agreement either way. But wildfire season could be a concern.
A map showing the seasonal precipitation outlook for Summer 2025. Photo: Environment Canada
The forecast from Natural Resources Canada shows fire weather severity will be above average for western Ontario by August. That’s measured by how intense fires are likely to become once they start — not how many fires are expected.
A map showing the seasonal wildfire outlook for Summer 2025. Photo: Environment Canada
Fire risk is being driven by a dry spring and widespread heat across the country, according to Bill Merrifield of Environment Canada’s climate research division. “The forecast probabilities are high for above-normal temperatures, and that’s a key factor in wildfire conditions,” he said.
Smith added that even in areas expected to be hotter, that doesn’t rule out short periods of cooler weather, depending on local conditions.
“Cold fronts, storms, and breezes off the lakes still shape what we actually feel during the summer,” she said.
Environment Canada recommends using the WeatherCan app or weather.gc.ca for local forecasts and wildfire alerts.
